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The US congressional scenario blocks the path of Trump's reelection

In addition to his goal of ripping Trump from the White House in the final days of his term, Democrats seem to want to stop him from returning to the bureaucracy.

The Democratic-controlled US House of Representatives on Jan. 11 announced the impeachment clause of President Donald Trump, revolving around his role in the Capitol Hill riots on Jan. 6. The White House boss is accused of making statements "inciting riot" and encouraging illegal conduct.

This is the next move by Democrats in their bid to remove Trump, after a resolution calling on US Vice President Mike Pence to trigger Amendment 25 was blocked by Republicans from voting in the House of Representatives. However, with President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration day imminent, Trump's removal before his term ends is perhaps not the most severe punishment the US congress can impose.

"Trump needs to be impeached and adjudicated, removed from office, and disqualified from holding and enjoying any position of honor, confidence or interest in the United States", the newly announced impeachment clause. The Democrats in the House have a paragraph.

US President Donald Trump is preparing to speak to a supportive crowd near the White House on January 6. Photo: AFP.
US President Donald Trump is preparing to speak to a supportive crowd near the White House on January 6. Photo: AFP.

The US Senate can proceed with this scenario according to the procedure specified in the Constitution. While the possibility of realization is underestimated, if this happens, Trump will not be able to run for president again in 2024 despite his broad influence on American politics.

Article II, section 4 of the US Constitution stipulates that a president must be removed from office if convicted in an impeachment trial in the Senate. "The president, vice president and all civil servants of the United States will be removed from office if convicted and convicted of treason, corruption, or other felonies and misconduct," the document reads.

In 2019, Trump was impeached for the first time, revolving around a suspicion of asking Ukraine's support to disadvantage Biden in the race to the White House, with two alleged terms including abuse of power and obstruction of parliament. It was then argued that these two provisions fall within the ambiguous definition of "felony and wrongdoing" in the constitution.

Democrats in the House seem to have learned from experience. In the impeachment resolution Trump announced on January 11, with the allegation of "inciting riot", they stated that Trump's behavior was an impeachable violation.

"President Trump has seriously endangered US security and government institutions. He threatens the integrity of the democratic system, interferes with the peaceful transfer of power, a branch of government is in danger. Therefore, he has betrayed his trust in a president, with the apparent hurt of the American people, "the resolution contained.

However, Article I, section 3 of the Constitution gives the Senate sole authority over all impeachment provisions. "No one can be convicted without the consent of two-thirds of the senators present. The ruling in impeachment cases will not exceed the dismissal and the disqualification of any hold and enjoyment. honorary title, credit or any interest in America ", the Constitution stipulated.

In other words, the right to convict and remove Trump rests with the Senate, and can only be exercised by two-thirds of the vote in favor. The Senate could also ban the president from holding government positions again if he is found guilty, but the Constitution does not specify whether the ruling requires two-thirds of the consensus.

The Senate used to disqualify a total of three people, all of whom were federal judges, with just over-selling votes. However, the US Supreme Court has never made a ruling on this matter, so if the Senate just over-votes to prevent Trump from returning to administration in the future, it will be an unprecedented and unprecedented situation. The risk of great controversy.

Even so, the Senate will likely not condemn Trump, which in turn does not lead to a voting process that determines his political future. Up to 67 senators approved the charge, which means that if all Democrats agree, 17 more votes from Republican senators are needed.

This number is considered difficult to achieve, because in the impeachment trial in 2019 only one Republican senator turned his back on Trump. Informed sources also revealed that the majority of Republican senators currently do not want to impeach the President.

The vote to pass the impeachment clause of Trump in the House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on January 13. However, according to the timetable outlined, the Senate impeachment trial could begin only an hour after Biden was sworn in at 12 o'clock on January 20. No president has ever faced an impeachment trial after leaving the White House.

Some scholars have argued that this scenario is still acceptable.